Exploring the World of Prediction Markets with Gnosis
Table of Contents
Meeting
Gnosis Prediction Market Meetup
Matt Liston from Gnosis is visiting to talk to us about prediction markets and their applications, Futarchy, and their upcoming crowdsale. A high level overview of the Gnosis prediction and oracle market will be presented along with a survey of applications including forecasting, betting, action incentive, governance, and insurance. The presentation will conclude with crowdsale and DAO structuring details and an open Q&A.
- built the JS and Haskell Ethereum implementation
- what are prediction markets
- shares are created where the options sum to 1
- fairly.com is a centralized market but
- getting started: coinbase, metabase
- applications: gambling, insurance, goverance
- conditional market behavior with idicators
- transparency of the pricy of the markets as bias
- what is the distribution of people
- insurance works by creating a binary share of FLIGHTCANCELORDELAY of YES and NO, insurance purchases NO
- security exploit (phrased as ODAYIN6MONTHS)
- create two markets based on the price on the outcome: people involved
- specifying the indicator is crucial, specifying the timing is crucial
- testing market manipulation
Gnosis
- create markets, market creator provides initial liquidity; crowd-funded
- funds are locked on the chain but a judge
- multi-oracles for challenges
- DAO Governance: founders and tokens
- DAPPs are still in progress: https://dappslist.com/dapp/gnosis/
Applications
- how does one evaluate the outcome of an action or something with bias
- this indicates how close people think a particular action will occur: example would be policy makers and positions held
- become and oracle that provides some initial value of integrity: