Gnosis and Prediction Markets on Ethereum
Table of Contents
1. Meeting
1.1. Gnosis Prediction Market Meetup
Could not corroborate the claim that Matt Liston "built the JS and Haskell Ethereum implementation" against any primary source -- no Gnosis team bio, GitHub profile, or press coverage found attributing a JS and Haskell Ethereum client to him. Flagged rather than corrected: absence of a source is not proof the claim is false.
Matt Liston from Gnosis is visiting to talk to us about prediction markets and their applications, Futarchy, and their upcoming crowdsale. A high level overview of the Gnosis prediction and oracle market will be presented along with a survey of applications including forecasting, betting, action incentive, governance, and insurance. The presentation will conclude with crowdsale and DAO structuring details and an open Q&A.
- built the JS and Haskell Ethereum implementation
- what are prediction markets
- shares are created where the options sum to 1
- fairly.com is a centralized market but
- getting started: coinbase, metabase
- applications: gambling, insurance, goverance
- conditional market behavior with idicators
- transparency of the pricy of the markets as bias
- what is the distribution of people
- insurance works by creating a binary share of FLIGHT_CANCEL_OR_DELAY of YES and NO, insurance purchases NO
- security exploit (phrased as O_DAY_IN_6_MONTHS)
- create two markets based on the price on the outcome: people involved
- specifying the indicator is crucial, specifying the timing is crucial
- testing market manipulation
1.1.1. Gnosis
Confirmed directly against gnosis.io: Gnosis is a real Ethereum-based prediction/oracle-market project, and its Conditional Token Framework (2018) and constant-product market-maker formula (2017) match the crowd-funded, market-creator-provides-liquidity model described below.
- create markets, market creator provides initial liquidity; crowd-funded
- funds are locked on the chain but a judge
- multi-oracles for challenges
- DAO Governance: founders and tokens
- DAPPs are still in progress: https://dappslist.com/dapp/gnosis/
1.1.2. Applications
The governance-by-prediction-market framing matches Robin Hanson's canonical futarchy proposal ("vote on values, bet on beliefs," 1999-2000): citizens set a welfare metric democratically, then a conditional prediction market picks the policy the market expects to best satisfy it.
- how does one evaluate the outcome of an action or something with bias
- this indicates how close people think a particular action will occur: example would be policy makers and positions held
- become and oracle that provides some initial value of integrity: